Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
